Weather Forecast

        National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center produces long-range generalized climate forecasts based on the average of seven different General Circulation Model simulations. These forecasts are released on the 8th day of every month with predictions of temperature and precipitation patterns over North America for the next seven months. The correctness of these forecasts becomes less with lead time. For this reason only three months are shown. The skill of these forecasts are better for temperature compared to precipitation, and are particularly good for temperature during winter and spring when El Niño or La Niña events are occurring.  Finally, these forecasts are generally poor during neutral ENSO years (El Niño or La Niña are not occurring).

        The predictions for each month describe the anomaly from the 1991 to 2020 average. Prediction maps for temperature and precipitation for the next 3 months are shown below. Also shown is the forecast for the current month from the previous model run release.

Temperature Forecast 

        For July, the forecast suggests temperature will be 2.0 to 3.0°C above-normal for the Okanagan region according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

        For the next 3 months, the temperature forecast looks above-normal by 0.5 to 2.0°C for the Okanagan region. These forecasts suggest it will most likely be a hot late summer and early fall!

Precipitation Forecast

        For July, the forecast suggests precipitation will be below normal according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

        For the next 3 months, the precipitation forecast for the Okanagan region looks  below-normal for August, September, and October. Combined with above-normal temperature conditions for these same months will result in high evapotranspiration and the drying of soils worsening current drought conditions. Coastal regions of British Columbia will be even more dry than the Okanagan Valley. 

Figure 1 Climate Prediction Center – North American Multi-Model Ensemble temperature forecast for July 2026. June 2026 model run. Shown is the forecasted temperature anomaly relative to the 1991 to 2020 thirty-year average.

Figure 2 Climate Prediction Center – North American Multi-Model Ensemble temperature forecast for August 2026. July 2026 model run. Shown is the forecasted temperature anomaly relative to the 1991 to 2020 thirty-year average.

Figure 3 Climate Prediction Center – North American Multi-Model Ensemble temperature forecast for September 2026. July 2026 model run. Shown is the forecasted temperature anomaly relative to the 1991 to 2020 thirty-year average.

Figure 4 Climate Prediction Center – North American Multi-Model Ensemble temperature forecast for Octover 2026. July 2026 model run. Shown is the forecasted temperature anomaly relative to the 1991 to 2020 thirty-year average.

Figure 5 Climate Prediction Center – North American Multi-Model Ensemble precipitation forecast for July 2026. June 2026 model run. Shown is the forecasted precipitation anomaly relative to the 1991 to 2020 thirty-year average.

Figure 6 Climate Prediction Center – North American Multi-Model Ensemble precipitation forecast for August 2026. July 2026 model run. Shown is the forecasted precipitation anomaly relative to the 1991 to 2020 thirty-year average.

Figure 7 Climate Prediction Center – North American Multi-Model Ensemble precipitation forecast for September 2026. July 2026 model run. Shown is the forecasted precipitation anomaly relative to the 1991 to 2020 thirty-year average.

Figure 8 Climate Prediction Center – North American Multi-Model Ensemble precipitation forecast for October 2026. July 2026 model run. Shown is the forecasted precipitation anomaly relative to the 1991 to 2020 thirty-year average.